Android tablet challenge faltering

[Hands0n]

Gartner, in their latest analysis, have stated that they believe the Android tablet challenge [to Apple's iPad] to be faltering, and go on to set out the reasons they believe that to be the case.

My own view is that Gartner are pretty much bang on, given my own experience of the two technologies side by side - an iPad 2 and an Asus Eee Pad Transformer (Honeycomb, Android 3.2).


Gartner has lowered its forecast for shipments of Android-based tablets by 28 percent from last quarter’s projection, due to “high prices, weak user interface and limited tablet applications.” It notes that the reduction would have been greater had it not been for the success of lower-end tablets in Asia, and the expectations around the launch of Amazon's new Android-based tablet.

You can read the full article on Mobile World Live here: http://bit.ly/pdODyR

Certainly, the Honeycomb UI leaves quite a bit to be desired in places. Fundamental weaknesses exist, and the web browsing interaction experience is dreadful with keyboard lag apparent and very odd behaviours when editing text in web text boxes for forums and the like. I have seen this across the Xoom, Samsung, Asus and HTC tablets and so must take this to be to do with Honeycomb itself rather than the hardware.

Virtually all discussion about price differentials is moot when considering like-for-like, that is Samsung, HTC, Motorola, even Asus vs Apple. It is either corporate greed or unmovable component prices that have seen Android tablets be at or above iPhone prices.


In the meantime, the tablet market remains dominated by Apple’s iPad. “We expect Apple to maintain a market share lead throughout our forecast period by commanding more than 50 percent of the market until 2014,” said Milanesi. “This is because Apple delivers a superior and unified user experience across its hardware, software and services. Unless competitors can respond with a similar approach, challenges to Apple’s position will be minimal.”

Every single week that passes further entrenches Apple's iPad in the psyche of not only users but also enterprise. Having used my iPad on the enterprise network, and finding that there isn't even a version of Cisco Anyconnect (VPN) for unrooted Android, I am convinced that Android poses no threat to the iOS devices in the enterprise space.

As the lead grows it makes for a much more difficult market for Android to address. It certainly needs to be able to compete much more aggressively if it is to repeat the very successful balance redress in the smartphone space. But I am not convinced, yet, that there is anything Android to do so - and I cannot even contemplate the sub-£200 kit that abounds in the bargain basement stores, fashion chains (ie. Next) or eBay running Android 2.2 (Froyo). None of these are likely to pick up Ice Cream Sandwich when it arrives.


The iPad is projected to account for 73.4 percent of global tablet sales in 2011, down from 83 percent share in 2010. Beyond Apple and Android, Gartner does not expect any other platforms to have more than 5 percent share of the tablet market in 2011.

Whatever happens with Ice Cream Sandwich in 4Q/2011 and indeed the rest of 2012 will define how Android progresses against iOS in the tablet space. Certainly, Google and the Android manufacturers cannot afford to give away another 12 months to Apple.

[Ben]

Android's start into tablets can definitely be described as 'faltering', IMHO, but then we knew from the off that Android wasn't really ready for tablets and customers have had to endure the strange situation of having the mobile version of the OS on things like the early Tab and then a very immature tablet version on the first batch of iPad competitors. The problem with such negative early experiences is that it could take the Android manufacturers years to shake them off and re-establish themselves.

Apple, on the other hand, launched the original iPad with a very limited feature set - as Apple always tend to do - and have then added features to both the software and the hardware as time has gone on. The result is happy customers yearning for more, not unhappy customers who are unlikely to re-buy.

The iPad lead can't last forever, not with Apple's strategy anyway I don't think. iOS wont be the world's biggest tablet OS for long. But they may well be the world's no.1 manufacturer of tablet computers indefinitely.

[miffed]

Competing with Apple is a bit of a mugs game at the moment I feel , Always ends in tears - The media & web commentators are SOOOOOOO keen for Apple to be "beaten" , that the merest sniff of suggestion of a competitor leads to a premature frenzy of expectation , invariably these devices have a huge "arranged" reputation to live up to before they even leave the factory -and this always tends to lead to disappointment. Not hard to see why they may stop trying so hard , and if they happen to launch a product that pleases , then build on it , rather than trying to 'knock out" the champ !

[paulbds]

Couple of new Samsung Tablets on the way

The tab plus 7.0is already out but the 7.7 looks nice

http://www.samsung.com/global/microsite/galaxytab/7.7/index.html?type=find

[Ben]

More Samsung tablets? Shocker!

[Hands0n]

More Samsung tablets? Shocker!

Isn't this what Samsung and the other far Eastern manufacturers do? They churn out model after model, often superseded within a few months. It is one of the things that put me right off Samsung a very long time ago and if it weren't for their SGS2 and SGN being what they are I would not contemplate a Samsung.

[Ben]

Look at the most successful tablets right now. iPad 2 and Kindle Fire, and, I suppose, HP TouchPad.

The theme? There's ONE of each of them. But each one of them has a focus on refinement.

Samsung are replicating the Nokia approach to handsets in the tablet world. But Android isn't the de facto tablet OS. It takes more.

[htcaddict]

Android doesn't have to worry about losing the tablet game. Tablets aren't gonna last. I still don't get why anyone would ever want a tablet when they can have a great smartphone that is actually cheaper. the iPad's success was due to the genius of Apple and Jobbs. However, time always verifies a technology and tablets will face the harsher side of reality sooner or later :)

[Ben]

See, I think the iPad is going to last.

Competing 'tablets', well, they never made it in the first place :)

[Wilt]

I think the iPad will follow a similar pattern to the iPod. It will retain its market share of the tablet market, but that market will contract as Apple brings out new products which will receive more attention from the press.

So you will barely notice it but it will gradually disappear over time.

[Hands0n]

But isn't that ignoring the very apparent uptake of the iPad in business and education? Particularly the latter is going to have a halo effect where students are subsequently going to buy the same technology that they've grown used to over the years.

I have both and iPad and an Android tablet, and I have to say that I do think that Android tablets are going to be in trouble. They really don't compare for some reason. It really isn't about technical specifications, the iPad just has it over Android in a very subtle way.

[Wilt]

No I don't think so, teachers will get fed up of trying to get kids to stop messing around with the things and businesses will move on to whatever the 'next big thing' is.

I don't think the 'halo effect' will count here - the mix of different dominant platforms between computers, tablets and phones will mean that the school students of today wont be afraid to try new platforms. Especially if Apple stick to current policies of not catering to a lower price point. The simple fact of the matter is, unless Apple produce cheaper models then no students other than the privileged will be able to afford their own iPad straight after leaving schools. By the time they can afford it, the halo effect will have worn off.

[htcaddict]

But isn't that ignoring the very apparent uptake of the iPad in business and education? Particularly the latter is going to have a halo effect where students are subsequently going to buy the same technology that they've grown used to over the years.

I have both and iPad and an Android tablet, and I have to say that I do think that Android tablets are going to be in trouble. They really don't compare for some reason. It really isn't about technical specifications, the iPad just has it over Android in a very subtle way.

Information technology will always have a dominant effect on business and education, but it is those branches of economy that reject impractical solutions the fastest. Ironically, I think the iPad will fail solely because the business industry will show Apple the finger. I seriously no additional benefit to developing portable computer technology side by side with tablets. a good netbook will always be better than even the greatest of tablets.

[Ben]

By the time they can afford it, the halo effect will have worn off.
I think the iPad 2 will be hanging around to address this issue, so we could be seeing more affordable iPads in the very near future.


a good netbook will always be better than even the greatest of tablets.
I couldn't disagree more. Steve's reality distortion field aside, netbooks are good for very little. The iPad trumps every netbook in battery life, screen quality, and, if you think in terms of browsing, even performance. You'd never use a netbook to read a book, much less an interactive textbook, and they typically can't handle the sorts of games an iPad can (to some extent because such games don't really exist optimised for netbooks). Netbook keyboards are abysmal, too; for my iPad I've got the Origami Workstation and an Apple Wireless Keyboard, which results in a far more elegant solution for text entry than a netbook alone could ever give IMHO.

The continued success of the iPad is far from assured, of course. It depends on continued advancements in both iOS and the iPad hardware, and the inability of competitors to come up with a better concept. But it does work - to the extent that I've forgone a MacBook Air for portability and gone back to a 15" full-on laptop, as it's much more practical to take the iPad everywhere else.

[Wilt]

I think the iPad 2 will be hanging around to address this issue, so we could be seeing more affordable iPads in the very near future.
Hmm, how sustainable is this strategy though? Nobody wants to buy old models, even if they are cheaper.

[Ben]

Hmm, how sustainable is this strategy though? Nobody wants to buy old models, even if they are cheaper.
US top three smartphones by sales:
1) Apple iPhone 4S
2) Apple iPhone 4
3) Apple iPhone 3GS

I reckon buyers are more than happy to take the older stuff provided they can get their hands on it at the right price. And I consider the iPhone 3GS to be an extreme example given the slew of Android handsets it's out-selling.

Agreed, it's unconventional (we're used to handsets specifically targeted at different markets), and there's no guarantee it'll work indefinitely. But a cheaper iPad 2, even if it were memory-constrained, would sell very nicely IMHO.

[Wilt]

But they're giving away the 3GS with contracts which is generally unheard of in the US. And the iPhone 4 looks exactly like the new model. The strategy won't work if people are shelling out their own cash to buy the device outright and not as part of their bi-yearly phone contract cycle.

People will want new models because they will be keeping the device for as long as possible afterwards - not as soon as they are eligible for a new contract.

You also can't use sales of individual models in a comparison like this - the combined sales of Android phones in the budget range are probably outselling the 3GS.

I stand by what I said earlier - Apple will take the focus off the iPad in the next few years in order to push their next product, which will result in the sales slides seen by the iPod range. Down 21% this quarter according to figures released tonight. And this is despite Apple releasing different models for different price points. I can't remember the last time I saw an iPod ad.

[Ben]

The iPod has been integrated into the iPhone and iPad, though. Primarily the iPhone. So I guess it has been consumed, rather than Apple losing interest to focus on something else. Mac sales are still growing, way faster than the market, as are iPhone and iPad sales.

[Wilt]

Then assuming that Apple aren't going to suddenly stop, the iPad will be 'consumed'.

[Hands0n]

Then assuming that Apple aren't going to suddenly stop, the iPad will be 'consumed'.

Very unlikely, it has its place in Apple's portfolio. The sales that have been announced speak volumes for the success of this technology from Apple in particular. Love them or hate them, we have an empirical set of figures to study to determine the success of the strategy so far. The same cannot be said for the alternative tablet product that is struggling to gain a foot hold. Maybe it will, in time.

This is one of those situations that will take a few years to bottom out. So far Apple's strategy seems to be working very favourably for the company indeed.

[DBMandrake]

Android doesn't have to worry about losing the tablet game. Tablets aren't gonna last. I still don't get why anyone would ever want a tablet when they can have a great smartphone that is actually cheaper.

So smart phones are competing with tablets then are they ? Sorry, but that made me laugh :D

Spoken as someone who doesn't understand tablets. While smart phones and tablets may share the same OS and many of the same apps, the use cases and scenarios of smart phones and tablets are totally different...


the iPad's success was due to the genius of Apple and Jobbs. However, time always verifies a technology and tablets will face the harsher side of reality sooner or later :)
I think you'll find its PC's that will face the harsh reality sooner or later. And by PC's I mean both Windows PC's and Macs.

PC's will never go away but they will not be the mainstay of home computing for much longer. There is a large percentage of the general public for whom PC's have never made sense as the right tool, but that's all that was available to them until now - too bulky and ugly with wires typically going everywhere, (just figuring out how to plug in a component PC system is a challenge for a lot of people, hence the appeal of laptops and iMac like machines) too expensive since they're far more powerful than required for most uses, far too complicated and arcane to use with 30 years of legacy idioms in their operation, far too prone to crashing, picking up viruses, having software installation/uninstallation screw up the OS, constantly needing security updates, 3rd party virus scanners, taking a long time to boot up, the list goes on. A large percentage of the population are either bewildered or frustrated to the point of throwing their computer at the wall.

For many of these people a tablet allows them to quickly and easily (even enjoyably) get the basic things done that they want to do - check their emails, read news on the web, look at photos of family, watch videos, listen to music, etc... even for those with more demanding needs who will always have a PC as well a tablet can still be something you use a lot.

I don't have a tablet of any sort but only because I've had no disposable income to spend on one for the last 2 years, so I use my phone as a kind of mini tablet... and despite having two computers in the house that I use a lot I always check my email on my phone - why ? Because it's just so damn convenient to pick it up, swipe to unlock, tap one button and see my emails immediately. No booting up a laptop, logging in, launching an email client, waiting while messages download as the mail client isn't running all the time in the background like the phone etc. If I want to write a reply then I might go to the trouble of loading up an email client on a PC.

Other examples are checking the weather, checking twitter, etc which I always do on my phone and never on a PC, because it takes so much longer.

If I had something like an iPad around the house I would very likely be doing all these things on that instead of the phone, giving my poor phone a chance to have a rest and be a phone instead of a mini tablet ;) As much as I can do on the phone, I frequently think "if only this thing had a 10" screen...", the larger screen area of a tablet over a phone really is a different experience.

People want to knock the iPad and tablets in general saying they're just a fad that will go away. Will the iPad continue to grow and dominate the tablet market as it does at the moment ? Probably not, in the long term. I think we'll probably see a similar Android/iOS split in tablet market share as we see in Smartphones now.

However the iPad has shown the way, set a template for how a tablet should be done, and because of this there is no chance that tablets in general will go away, that's so clear from the success of the iPad and sales figures that anyone that thinks they are a fad is delusional and is too busy focusing on specs and "limitations" instead of understanding what the average person really needs and wants from a personal computing device, and seeing how a user friendly tablet device can open up computing to people who previously simply could not make effective use of a large complex desktop PC. For those people a tablet is their only realistic option.

When the first iPad came out I was dubious about whether there was "room" for another device between the smart phone and PC, I think that answer is now obvious - for many people the answer is yes, and for many more people the answer is that a tablet can largely or even completely replace a PC.

[htcaddict]

So smart phones are competing with tablets then are they ? Sorry, but that made me laugh :D

Spoken as someone who doesn't understand tablets. While smart phones and tablets may share the same OS and many of the same apps, the use cases and scenarios of smart phones and tablets are totally different...

I think you'll find its PC's that will face the harsh reality sooner or later. And by PC's I mean both Windows PC's and Macs.

PC's will never go away but they will not be the mainstay of home computing for much longer. There is a large percentage of the general public for whom PC's have never made sense as the right tool, but that's all that was available to them until now - too bulky and ugly with wires typically going everywhere, (just figuring out how to plug in a component PC system is a challenge for a lot of people, hence the appeal of laptops and iMac like machines) too expensive since they're far more powerful than required for most uses, far too complicated and arcane to use with 30 years of legacy idioms in their operation, far too prone to crashing, picking up viruses, having software installation/uninstallation screw up the OS, constantly needing security updates, 3rd party virus scanners, taking a long time to boot up, the list goes on. A large percentage of the population are either bewildered or frustrated to the point of throwing their computer at the wall.

For many of these people a tablet allows them to quickly and easily (even enjoyably) get the basic things done that they want to do - check their emails, read news on the web, look at photos of family, watch videos, listen to music, etc... even for those with more demanding needs who will always have a PC as well a tablet can still be something you use a lot.

I don't have a tablet of any sort but only because I've had no disposable income to spend on one for the last 2 years, so I use my phone as a kind of mini tablet... and despite having two computers in the house that I use a lot I always check my email on my phone - why ? Because it's just so damn convenient to pick it up, swipe to unlock, tap one button and see my emails immediately. No booting up a laptop, logging in, launching an email client, waiting while messages download as the mail client isn't running all the time in the background like the phone etc. If I want to write a reply then I might go to the trouble of loading up an email client on a PC.

Other examples are checking the weather, checking twitter, etc which I always do on my phone and never on a PC, because it takes so much longer.

If I had something like an iPad around the house I would very likely be doing all these things on that instead of the phone, giving my poor phone a chance to have a rest and be a phone instead of a mini tablet ;) As much as I can do on the phone, I frequently think "if only this thing had a 10" screen...", the larger screen area of a tablet over a phone really is a different experience.

People want to knock the iPad and tablets in general saying they're just a fad that will go away. Will the iPad continue to grow and dominate the tablet market as it does at the moment ? Probably not, in the long term. I think we'll probably see a similar Android/iOS split in tablet market share as we see in Smartphones now.

However the iPad has shown the way, set a template for how a tablet should be done, and because of this there is no chance that tablets in general will go away, that's so clear from the success of the iPad and sales figures that anyone that thinks they are a fad is delusional and is too busy focusing on specs and "limitations" instead of understanding what the average person really needs and wants from a personal computing device, and seeing how a user friendly tablet device can open up computing to people who previously simply could not make effective use of a large complex desktop PC. For those people a tablet is their only realistic option.

When the first iPad came out I was dubious about whether there was "room" for another device between the smart phone and PC, I think that answer is now obvious - for many people the answer is yes, and for many more people the answer is that a tablet can largely or even completely replace a PC.

Well, mate :D You make hell of a compelling argument:P And obviously, PC's are even more dead than tablets, in 10 years you wo't even have to pay extra to get a powerful portable computer.

But the iPad..... I can't argue with you now but let's wait a year or two. When the heavy pr campaign end, the iPad will start disappearing. The only type of a tablet that can (possibly_ survive is the Kindle. Kindle fire offers a unique function which is not available on any other platform (the magic screen). the iPad is just a bigger version of Galaxy in my opinion :D (Oh, you will hate me for this one :D)

[Ben]

The Fire has a 'magic screen'? What is this 'magic screen' hocus pocus?