[3g-g]

More intriguing by the minute!

http://telecoms.cbronline.com/news/deutsche_telekom_rejects_orange_bid_to_buy_t_mobil e_uk_020609

[Ben]

What the hell would the French want with T-Mobile UK, lol.

Sounds like Vodafone is still in the picture according that article. Interesting idea WRT Turkey :S

[gorilla]

Now here me out.

What if Virgin Media were to buy 3 and launch a combined home/mobile/broadband goliath. Of course, 1 poor CS + 1 poor CS = a disaster, but that never stopped any merger or acquisition in the past!

It would make sense for orange and TM to tie up given their respective market positions. I think we're headed for a 3 company market: O2, Voda and A N Other

[Ben]

Tbh I think it'd be great if Virgin and BT both had physical mobile networks. I'm not sure if either of them has the money to make that a reality, though, lol. I suppose BT would be the more likely to go splashing the cash. Who needs fibre?

Think when we've only got 3 networks it'll become any more economical to build out network coverage? 'course it wont :D

[Hands0n]

The reduction in competition from five to three mobile network operators will initially be not too good as they will see less need to compete.

But after a short while they will start competing against each other again because the UK is an over-saturated market. There is less new business to be had, it is all about containing churn these days.

Already we read a lot about there being 130%+ sales - that means nutters like me who carry two mobile contracts around. But these percentages cannot grow by much.

New business is the only way forward - hence the emergence all of a sudden of the mobile data that many of us have been screaming for for years. We can expect to see a lot more of this, along with upping of the proposition if not a small reduction in price. Certainly more low-end enticers to get folk hooked. And many more increases in allowances well beyond the 5GB that we see today.

[Hands0n]

WTF? According to Trusted Review even O2 is "racing" to buy T-Mobile. Have the vultures smelled blood or something?

See http://www.trustedreviews.com/mobile-phones/news/2009/07/01/O2---Orange-Join-Race-to-Buy-T-Mobile-UK/p1

[Ben]

Trusted Reviews should be renamed Overexcited News :)

[Hands0n]

LoL - to be fair they are reporting Gruaniad news ...

[gorilla]

The top 3 should all be wanting to buy t-mob, it would make for good business.

[getti]

The news of a swap for Voda Turkey is old..... not what is being reported more recently

[3g-g]

If I was any network operator, the chance to gain 17 million customers in on swoop would be appealing!

Who's being quiet though, Three are. The network that seems to have cash to burn really, bankrolled by by the far east... an currently the network that's building a super network between them. My money is on Three.

Voda couldn't come to an agreement with Orange to build a combined network between them, I don't think they'd want to take on TMo when they're in the midst of getting into bed with Three. I think there'll be to much regulatory nonsense for Voda/Three/Tmo all to be in cahoots with each other.

[Ben]

Hmm y'see I don't think 3 do have money to burn - I think they've pretty much burnt it all. Hutchison made it quite clear in the early years that their intention was to build up and spin off the 3 networks in the various markets. Indeed, the very markets they targeted were ones where they thought expensive handsets and 3G services would be popular.

To buy T-Mobile would indicate that Hutchison were in the UK for the long haul. Ok, so a change of strategy isn't completely unlikely given that it seems disposing of 3 UK for anything like the money Hutchison want for it is unlikely for the foreseeable future, but I'm still not convinced that they can do a complete 180. Buying a network bigger and more valuable than the one they have already and have pained to build from scratch would be an achievement :D

[3GScottishUser]

I doubt if HWL would want to pile another £4 billion into the UK on top of the £10 billion that has brought them nothing for the last 6 years.

I bet HWL are hoping for a dignified exit and the last thing they need is for their network sharing and possible acquisition by T-Mobile to be thwarted.

A Vodafone takeover of T-Mobile could be the last nail in 3s coffin with disposal to Orange at a knock down price. Orange are currently looking at Virgin's cable and mobile business in the UK (allegedly) so the addition of 3s customer base could create a tidy market share if it can be achieved at the right price.

If the above comes to pass there would be two network operations in the UK for mobile with 4 major brands and that looks far more sustainable in the longer term.