[3GScottishUser]

According to Sky News Vodafone are seriously considering buying T-Mobile UK.

This move would shake up the market!!

Bye Bye cosy Hutchison 3G UK network sharing agreement - back on their own again and that would probably be the cue for HWL to sell at whatever they could get for it to 02 or Orange/FT.

Orange would be the only network with no shared infrastructure and would be the one with the highest operating costs whilst losing market share.

Who would have thought T-Mobile could be swallowed by Vodafone?

Implications for Virgin too but their MVNO status will have some contractual protection but longer term they would have fewer partners to buy services from.

If this move happens it will be a very significant restructuring of the UK Mobile communications industry.

Mighty Vodafone is on the move and every other network and virtual network should be afraid, be very afraid as only those with an existing alliance with Vodafone (including 02 with their infrastructure sharing) or T-Mobile allies might survive this.

It looks like UK mobile telco consolodation has arrived and its going to be a bloodbath!

[Ben]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1cf12a8-6409-11de-a818-00144feabdc0.html

If anyone was going to have 40% of the UK market I suppose it would at least be nice for it to be a UK company.

Not really sure what Vodafone would have to gain from a T-Mobile acquisition, though?

[Hands0n]

I am not happy with this at all. The so-called "free market economy" where larger predatory firms can buy smaller ones has not borne the fruit it was supposed to.

A good example might be DSGI who own Dixons, Currys, Comet (and others?) who are now in trouble themselves. In our town this has meant that we now have no DSGI outlet as it has decided to close down both its former Currys show and now their Currys Digital because it cannot compete with a major shopping mall ten miles away!

Latterly we read that DSGI itself is posting huge downsides in its trading from previous years. Should it go to the wall then three major former chains would disappear in one fell swoop.

Not that I'm suggesting that Vodafone is likely to disappear overnight [yet] but then again, a year or so ago if you'd have said that huge American finance houses would vanish in a blink I'd have laughed in your face! But it happened, and with more to come no doubt.

Apart from customer numbers, and that magic 40% market share, Vodafone would appear to have not much else to gain.

[3GScottishUser]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1cf12a8-6409-11de-a818-00144feabdc0.html

If anyone was going to have 40% of the UK market I suppose it would at least be nice for it to be a UK company.

Not really sure what Vodafone would have to gain from a T-Mobile acquisition, though?

This move might be expensive in the short term for Vodafone but would put enourmous pressure on two others who would have to make serious changes or exit the market as their costs would be much higher than Vodafone/02's combined efforts.

I predict the days of the falling price of mobile communication are nearing their end if Vodafone manage to acquire 40% market share. BT might buy H3G UK but they would have to form an alliance with Orange/FT to compete with Vodadone/02 combined with T-Mobile.

This is a huge change that has implications for not only networks but all of the distribution channels as there would need to be big changes to address the successful acquisition of T-Mobile by Vodafone.

[chaslam]

A good example might be DSGI who own Dixons, Currys, Comet (and others?) who are now in trouble themselves. In our town this has meant that we now have no DSGI outlet as it has decided to close down both its former Currys show and now their Currys Digital because it cannot compete with a major shopping mall ten miles away!



DSGi Dont actually own Comet, they own Currys, PCW and Dixons. The biggest problem they have at the moment isnt other store or shopping malls, but online retailers. People like Amazon or DABs dont have the overheads that PCW or Currys have hiring the staff, supplying the products, renting/running the building etc etc.

DSGi are in the middle of a huge overhall because of the reason alot of their stores are right next to each other. When you think about it, a huge majority of stores are next to each other (pcw and currys) meaning they are selling similar stock, but costing them double for rent and staff etc. They are now starting to open Megastores which are PCW and currys combined.

In My area, both Currys and PCW (which happens to be one of the only places in the contry where the stores are slap bang next to each other) are going through refits at the moment, and although on paper DSGi have made a loss, they are still well ahead of where the critics say they should be, and are confident they will survive the credit crunch.

Anyway, back to topic. I dont think I would actually like to see vodafone buy out tmobile. Its nice to see a good healthy competition in the market, especially phones where there are only 4 big players and its such a competitive industry. To see vodafone eat nearly half the market imo wouldnt be good for the industry in the long run in terms of prices etc.

[3GScottishUser]

What the disposal of T-Mobile proves is that there is not much hope for more than three networks to make money from the market.

Its logical that if the #4 in the market is losing money then there is little room available! It has come to light that T-Mobile has been losing money for years despite looking pretty healthy with decent customers numbers and a vibrant MVNO business.

T-Mobile is only worth 3-4 Billion!! Less than they paid for their 3G licence and valued at less than 1/3rd of what Hutchison have ploughed into 3UK!!

If T-Mobile UK get bought by Vodafone it will be the 'big bang' that will lead to some major consolodation. Vodafone won't need the T-Mobile infrastructure, their retail portfolio or customer support etc so perhaps the business makes sense only as part of an existing business.

If an enlarged Vodafone (combined with T-Mobile) and 02 share infrastructure it will make the competition's task daunting. Big issues for H3G UK and Orange in the UK.

[Ben]

Indeed, if T-Mobile are struggling to run a national network with 15% market share then it doesn't bode well for 3 and their 8%! That said, it's even clearer now why T-Mobile and Three are working together for their physical infrastructure.

I'm not for or against this move at the moment. I believe a strong, British Vodafone is good for the UK's position in the global mobile industry. But without some of T-Mobile's innovative tariffs over the last few years (hello Flext, Web n Walk) we may all be worse off now than we are.

[3GScottishUser]

Indeed, if T-Mobile are struggling to run a national network with 15% market share then it doesn't bode well for 3 and their 8%! That said, it's even clearer now why T-Mobile and Three are working together for their physical infrastructure.

I'm not for or against this move at the moment. I believe a strong, British Vodafone is good for the UK's position in the global mobile industry. But without some of T-Mobile's innovative tariffs over the last few years (hello Flext, Web n Walk) we may all be worse off now than we are.

You are right. It has been the smaller customer hungry late entrants that have made a lot of the moves lowering prices.

That said there is a limit to what reductions can be made and if T-Mobile are losing heavily then I think we have almost reached the point beyond which further significant reductions can be passed onto customers. I dare say any company can look good and be the customers friend but it only makes sense if they can eventually make a return. DT are obviously of the opinion that they can't make a return from T-Mobile UK. Economies of scale seem to be the target now with pressure from the EU on roaming and termination rates.

[Hands0n]

@chaslam - thanks for the correction.

I see even Dabs are laying off staff. And if that's in the wake of causing the likes of DSGI difficulties that cannot be good for business, the customer or industry. Imagine a future where DSGI group of companies is a distant memory and the likes of Dabs are now, in turn, going to the wall.

Possibly this couldn't happen in the OFCOM regulated mobile telephony world. But I view all such mergers and acquisitions with growing suspicion. The free Market philosopy does also allow for complete collapse!

A combined Vodafone and T-Mobile will indeed be formidable. But also exposed to falling into foreign ownership in the future. Or worse, complete collapse if mismanaged - not unheard of in free market economies.

[3GScottishUser]

@I see even Dabs are laying off staff.

Glad to hear it. Its a BT company now and those clowns make a test charge on your bank card of 1p before they process an order. That alerts the bank and they treat the transaction as fraud and a test attempt and it prevents you using your bank account (Maestro) until the issue is discussed directly with the bank.

Beware of Dabs.... and BT for this reason as its not funny trying to get your stuff from Morrisons or Asda after they do this silly stuff.

I closed my dabs account after they done it to me and got a smarmy e-mail with not a hint of apology re the inconvienience they caused. Hell mend them I say.

[Hands0n]

@3GSU - You don't hold a grudge then :D

Really! That is despicable of them, especially as they must know how the bank would react in these days of identity and card fraud.

But then again, thats BT all over - very well known for snatching defeat from the hands of success.

You watch, if they buy 3 it'll be a basket case within 12 months. You all read that here :D

[Ben]

Lol, Dabs are fine. It's Maestro that are crap. I've heard that Maestro is being ditched by some big banks at the moment... we should hear more in due course. Visa Delta is a much better debit card solution.

If BT buy 3... well, I certainly can't imagine the physical network getting worse, or the customer support for that matter :D You can waive good bye to market leading prices, though :p

I was hoping for some fresh Vodafone sources today but it all seems rather dry. I guess this is just one of those things that's probably in the early stages and we'll either hear details some way down the line or it'll die away like so many speculated deals do.

[Hands0n]

If BT buy 3... well, I certainly can't imagine the physical network getting worse, or the customer support for that matter :D You can waive good bye to market leading prices, though :p

Yup, like I said above ... "Snatch defeat from the hands of success" :D

Been there, seen it, got the book, t-shirt and video. I saw them once chuck a £15mln contract away and end up with a poxy £600k cabling job in the City. They're legendary at this ... remember BT Vision? No, me neither, its all but gone. This was the company that once boasted that they'd "own the Internet in 5 years ..." showing their complete ignorance of what it actually was.

I could go on :D

[gorilla]

Lol, Dabs are fine. It's Maestro that are crap. I've heard that Maestro is being ditched by some big banks at the moment... we should hear more in due course. Visa Delta is a much better debit card solution.

Yip, all my bank cards are Visa now.