[3GScottishUser]

From The Sunday Times (17/05/2005):

Mobile phone numbers just don’t ring true
by Paul Durman

THE number of mobile-phone users in the UK may be overstated by as much as 15m, according to a new analysis.

A survey commissioned by Enders Analysis, a research firm, found the proportion of adults with a mobile is wildly at odds with figures reported by Vodafone, Orange, O2, T-Mobile and other operators.

Company figures suggest there are now more mobiles in use than the total UK population of 60m.

Although a number of people may have more than one mobile, James Barford at Enders believes millions of phones are abandoned in drawers and essentially unused. Some are retained on company books because they occasionally receive a text message or a “wrong number” call.

Barford said the number of these “barely active” phones has grown sharply in the past year because of the accelerated pace of handset upgrades.

The Enders study sheds light on an industry conundrum: how the mobile-network operators have been able to report increases in subscriber numbers when just about everybody who wants a mobile phone already has one.

The Enders survey also has bad news on the appetite for new 3G services, such as video calling and video downloads.

It makes particularly gloomy reading for 3, Britain’s first 3G mobile-phone company when it was launched two years ago. Researchers found that almost two-thirds of 3’s customers were planning to switch to another network.

Barford said these findings suggested that the customer-service problems that accompanied 3’s launch had not gone.

Enders estimates that underlying customer “churn” at 3 is running at more than 60% — much higher than at its rivals. Its report stated: “Churn at this level will both delay their break-even profitability by many years and choke off their rapid subscriber growth as their gross additions replace churned customers rather than increase the base.”

The survey also found that nearly 80% of those with a 3G phone had either never made a video call, or had tried to only once.

More than three-quarters of those surveyed were not interested in acquiring a 3G phone, or not very interested. Barely half of 3’s customers realised they already had a 3G phone; a quarter of 3’s customers said they had no interest in acquiring a 3G phone.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,2769-1612386,00.html

[miffed]

The survey also found that nearly 80% of those with a 3G phone had either never made a video call, or had tried to only once.


This is something a lot of us had suspected - nice to see some figures backing it up , TBH I am surprised it is 80% and not 95% + though

[3GScottishUser]

I doubt if Bob Fuller will have read that comfortably. Its pretty much as expected for most of us who have sampled the product. The fact that they are now having to giveaway premium handsets on rock bottom price plans tells its own story.

Poor H3G UK, throwing good money at a lost cause by the looks of it.

PS - Don't forget to vote in the poll!!!

[Ben]

"Researchers found that almost two-thirds of 3’s customers were planning to switch to another network."

Now there's a finding that doesn't surprise me :) How lovely to see it in print. Of course, by the time those surveyed come to the end of their contract there's a good chance that something or other will have happened to cause them to stay. Still, it doesn't make for happy reading.

Can the other networks offer competitive UMTS pricing models to scoop up some of the Three churn? We already know it could be costing them up to 4x less for calls placed over their 3G networks.

[@NickyColman]

Jeez, sounds like Three is going to be in for a rough ride ! June/July is roughly a year since Three launched the LG8110 and all the mad priceplans that go with it. I wouldnt be surprised to hear that most customers decide to ditch Three and go back to the other networks! I myself am one such person! On thursday I smugly rang Three to tell them that i DID NOT want to renew my contract! I suspect i am only one of thousands that will be doing this in the coming months!

[delinquentwoody]

a quarter of 3’s customers said they had no interest in acquiring a 3G phone.



I'm guessing this must be the quarter of people who 3s content is aimed at!!

[3GScottishUser]

I suspect the above means that 1 in 4 of 3's customers don't know that they have a 3G phone.

Easy to identify why this is. Most of 3's customers buy on price and could'nt care less what technology is used to make the service work.

[simax]

I suspect the above means that 1 in 4 of 3's customers don't know that they have a 3G phone.

Easy to identify why this is. Most of 3's customers buy on price and could'nt care less what technology is used to make the service work.
.....and in the process, totally devaluing the product.

I only sell 3G to people who really want it. They may not want it this year, or the next, or the year after that, but one day they will, as they'll have no choice!

Simon

[Hands0n]

The report largely supports what I have found through just asking around the people that I know and frequently come across. That they dont' really know - and more importantly care not in the least - what 3G really is. They all know about Three, about how cheap the tariffs are, about how crap the customer support is, about how dire the handsets are (they all seem to know of the LG's reputation). Often they are pleasantly surprised when I whip mine out (my E1000 that is). The next [inevitable] question is "Is that phone available on the normal networks?" Normal?? Read into that single word what you will, but I think it speaks volumes for the opinion [rightly or wrongly] of the people.

3G is a tantalising proposition to me, and to many fellow tech-head associates of mine. Collectively we all think that Three have screwed it with their lack of true Internet. Now that the four main players are putting out their offerings we see no reason to even consider Three beyond 2005 - tariffs notwithstanding.

But can Three do it on tariffs alone? Or will their [apparent] faith in "Chav" content be fulfilled?

Three's biggest worry must be that 60% Churn does not turn into 40% Atrition. And they just don't seem to realise the damage that their Mumbai-based CS is doing to the brand.

Anyone remember Rabit? Another idea that did not catch the public's imagination. The big four can ease 3G into their offering. Three have no such luxury!

[3GScottishUser]

"The big four can ease 3G into their offering. Three have no such luxury!"

That comment really hits the nail on the head! 3 UK have no choice to offer customers whilst the rest have both mobile delivery systems. Having the best GSM products and being able to play the UMTS game with caution appears to have been the startegy of the incumbents and it looks like serving them well.

[Hands0n]

.....and in the process, totally devaluing the product.

I only sell 3G to people who really want it. They may not want it this year, or the next, or the year after that, but one day they will, as they'll have no choice!

Simon

Pop question for you :) When is the last time someone walked into your store and asked "Do you have any EDGE handsets for sale?"

Of course, you're absolutely right, in time there will be no choice - inasmuch the same way as I can no longer buy an ATACS handset GSM will one day be consigned to history. But my point is that the vast bulk of people simply will not care a jot what the technology is behind the handset. They'll care just a little bit more about what it does over and above making phone calls and sending texts. Lamentable, I know.

In time, when the tariff is right, videocall will begin to take off - but I suspect it may take a whole generation [or longer] for it to become the norm. For instance, I can drive/walk/do stuff while holding a voice call. I have to virtually stand still to hold a video call, good though they are.

For a long time, I suspect, 3G will be for the benefit of the mobile operators with the larger margins available to them compared to handling traffic via 2G/2.5G.

The technology [it is apparent] needs the people more than the people need the technology!

My 3Gs worth :)