Hands0n
12th March 2008, 12:11 AM
Here we are in the early part of March 2008 and this year is already beginning to look very exciting in terms of Mobile Network offerings. I recall 2006 as being an exciting year for handsets, with 2007 following it up in a rather lacklustre manner. The 2007 range of handsets just were not as appealing as the previous year. And so the mind turned to thoughts of what else the mobile network operators could do to entice us to spend with them.
T-Mobile threw the cat in amongst the pigeons with its FlexT and topped it with some rather nice icing in the form of Web N Walk and its siblings. It was the beginning of affordable mobile data. But still the other four mobile operators kept their prices sufficiently high enough to discourage all but the very brave. Some would say the very foolish. And we did see some people get themselves into terrible trouble with mobile data resulting in monthly bills that would make a scaffolder weep.
I have banged on all through last year about how the mobile network operators needed to recognise that the "killer app" was staring them in the face. That it was mobile data, a veritable desert in their otherwise green garden of mobile comms.
And so finally, as 2008 came into being, we began to see the beginnings of my prophecies come to light (ooooh, I'm in a right melodramatic mood tonight). T-Mobile [again] kicked it off with Web N Walk on a USB dongle at under £30. Very surprisingly 3 swiftly followed up with the same USB dongle but quite a bit cheaper. And shortly after the £15 for 3GB tariff arrived and pretty much opened up the floodgates. 3 were off and running, for those that would trust them. Most surprisingly though was Vodafone entering the affray with a £30/3GB deal that is discounted to £15/3GB as a "promotion". Forgive me for being cynical, but if Vodafone did away with the promotion their new mobile data business would come screeching to a halt.
So, here we are still in the first quarter of 2008 and a veritable war has broken out. There is mobile data coming out of almost every single mobile network operator priced at this magical £15. And the buying public seem to be loving it, with reports of 18,000 units being sold in a week - more than were sold in September 2007. That, in such a short time, is some achievement.
What is interesting is that the buying demographic for this mobile data is precisely that which was predicted on Talk3G. That being Students and people in rented accommodation, us techno-geeks don't even show up on the figures.
I suspect that the rest of 2008 will see the mobile operators engaged in ever more aggressive mobile data pricing, quantity and availability. The facility is beginning to meet traditional wired ADSL providers head on in terms of speed and data allowances. We should expect this to continue to improve through the year. Already we read of people who are getting better data speeds from 3G/HSDPA than they do via their ADSL provider. Think also of all of those people who cannot get ADSL because of their distance from the nearest BT exchange. These are not a small few, and with BT consolidating their exchange buildings (you don't read much about that) the number of folk falling out of the reach of ADSL can only increase. Enter mobile data. This is such a ready market, and it has been there for all of these years, but the mobile network operators just could not see it. History may, in time, record why not.
Whats next?
I like this predicting lark. It is fun watching it come to fruition, so out comes the crystal ball again.
My forecast is that the next "killer app" to be identified will be Videocalling. I have said this before and make no apologies for repeating it now. It will not be as big as mobile data, but nevertheless it is perhaps the last remaining feature to be exploited on mobile handsets. We don't do Videocalling in the UK right now because it is so very much more expensive than Voice. There is no reason for that to be - as exampled by O2 who have, from the off, tariffed Videocalling the same as Voice. But the uptake is being throttled by being priced out, just like mobile data has been.
For sure, the conventional image of Videocalling being a couple of people having a bit of a laugh does it no favours. But there are lots of very practical uses for the feature that have yet to be identified and exploited. But not at current pricing, it is too expensive even for small businesses to contemplate. But fast forward a little bit to a point where the Videocalling tariffs are comparable or the same as Voice and things may be somewhat different.
The quality of Videocalling is often cited as a limiter - but it really can be quite sufficient for many practical applications such as remote inspection or surveying. I do recall when 3 launched in 2003 I was in the Bluewater The Link store where there were a pair of builder types buying a pair of NEC handsets. As I got into conversation with them they explained that they intended to use them to be able to remote inspect sites where they sent out lesser skilled staff. Their thoughts were that it would cut down a lot of to'ing and fro'ing between sites and make them more efficient. This was five years ago and being considered by completely untypical technology users. I still wonder to this day if they ever got it to work the way they intended. Try it today and, if you could afford to do it, the reach of the 3G networks is such that you'd be more likely to succeed than fail to be able to use Videocalling for such purposes.
I have touched on only one possible use of the technology, inspired by two builders from five years back. You have to wonder what other uses could be made with today's handsets and networks. But none of this will come to be as long as the 60p/min Videocalling rates persist.
Videocalling the Killer App? Maybe not, but in a saturated market the mobile network operators are going to have to come up with ever more innovative ways of selling their wares to us.
Beyond this? Who knows? The chances are that the emerging low-cost PC makers such as Asus with their Eee PC will start embedding 3G/HSDPA/HSUPA chipsets into their toys. The USB Dongle will begin its decline rapidly as motherboard and system manufacturers also embed these comms chipsets into their product. VLSI (Very Large Scale Integration) chipsets will ultimately carry all of the comms functionality we see today with disparate add-ons. I believe that 2009/10 will see this become mainstream with SIM slots on devices we would not normally associate these with.
Oh yes, 2008 to 2010 is going to be something of a goldrush for mobile communications. Who knows, voice and SMS may finally not be the core business in years to come.
T-Mobile threw the cat in amongst the pigeons with its FlexT and topped it with some rather nice icing in the form of Web N Walk and its siblings. It was the beginning of affordable mobile data. But still the other four mobile operators kept their prices sufficiently high enough to discourage all but the very brave. Some would say the very foolish. And we did see some people get themselves into terrible trouble with mobile data resulting in monthly bills that would make a scaffolder weep.
I have banged on all through last year about how the mobile network operators needed to recognise that the "killer app" was staring them in the face. That it was mobile data, a veritable desert in their otherwise green garden of mobile comms.
And so finally, as 2008 came into being, we began to see the beginnings of my prophecies come to light (ooooh, I'm in a right melodramatic mood tonight). T-Mobile [again] kicked it off with Web N Walk on a USB dongle at under £30. Very surprisingly 3 swiftly followed up with the same USB dongle but quite a bit cheaper. And shortly after the £15 for 3GB tariff arrived and pretty much opened up the floodgates. 3 were off and running, for those that would trust them. Most surprisingly though was Vodafone entering the affray with a £30/3GB deal that is discounted to £15/3GB as a "promotion". Forgive me for being cynical, but if Vodafone did away with the promotion their new mobile data business would come screeching to a halt.
So, here we are still in the first quarter of 2008 and a veritable war has broken out. There is mobile data coming out of almost every single mobile network operator priced at this magical £15. And the buying public seem to be loving it, with reports of 18,000 units being sold in a week - more than were sold in September 2007. That, in such a short time, is some achievement.
What is interesting is that the buying demographic for this mobile data is precisely that which was predicted on Talk3G. That being Students and people in rented accommodation, us techno-geeks don't even show up on the figures.
I suspect that the rest of 2008 will see the mobile operators engaged in ever more aggressive mobile data pricing, quantity and availability. The facility is beginning to meet traditional wired ADSL providers head on in terms of speed and data allowances. We should expect this to continue to improve through the year. Already we read of people who are getting better data speeds from 3G/HSDPA than they do via their ADSL provider. Think also of all of those people who cannot get ADSL because of their distance from the nearest BT exchange. These are not a small few, and with BT consolidating their exchange buildings (you don't read much about that) the number of folk falling out of the reach of ADSL can only increase. Enter mobile data. This is such a ready market, and it has been there for all of these years, but the mobile network operators just could not see it. History may, in time, record why not.
Whats next?
I like this predicting lark. It is fun watching it come to fruition, so out comes the crystal ball again.
My forecast is that the next "killer app" to be identified will be Videocalling. I have said this before and make no apologies for repeating it now. It will not be as big as mobile data, but nevertheless it is perhaps the last remaining feature to be exploited on mobile handsets. We don't do Videocalling in the UK right now because it is so very much more expensive than Voice. There is no reason for that to be - as exampled by O2 who have, from the off, tariffed Videocalling the same as Voice. But the uptake is being throttled by being priced out, just like mobile data has been.
For sure, the conventional image of Videocalling being a couple of people having a bit of a laugh does it no favours. But there are lots of very practical uses for the feature that have yet to be identified and exploited. But not at current pricing, it is too expensive even for small businesses to contemplate. But fast forward a little bit to a point where the Videocalling tariffs are comparable or the same as Voice and things may be somewhat different.
The quality of Videocalling is often cited as a limiter - but it really can be quite sufficient for many practical applications such as remote inspection or surveying. I do recall when 3 launched in 2003 I was in the Bluewater The Link store where there were a pair of builder types buying a pair of NEC handsets. As I got into conversation with them they explained that they intended to use them to be able to remote inspect sites where they sent out lesser skilled staff. Their thoughts were that it would cut down a lot of to'ing and fro'ing between sites and make them more efficient. This was five years ago and being considered by completely untypical technology users. I still wonder to this day if they ever got it to work the way they intended. Try it today and, if you could afford to do it, the reach of the 3G networks is such that you'd be more likely to succeed than fail to be able to use Videocalling for such purposes.
I have touched on only one possible use of the technology, inspired by two builders from five years back. You have to wonder what other uses could be made with today's handsets and networks. But none of this will come to be as long as the 60p/min Videocalling rates persist.
Videocalling the Killer App? Maybe not, but in a saturated market the mobile network operators are going to have to come up with ever more innovative ways of selling their wares to us.
Beyond this? Who knows? The chances are that the emerging low-cost PC makers such as Asus with their Eee PC will start embedding 3G/HSDPA/HSUPA chipsets into their toys. The USB Dongle will begin its decline rapidly as motherboard and system manufacturers also embed these comms chipsets into their product. VLSI (Very Large Scale Integration) chipsets will ultimately carry all of the comms functionality we see today with disparate add-ons. I believe that 2009/10 will see this become mainstream with SIM slots on devices we would not normally associate these with.
Oh yes, 2008 to 2010 is going to be something of a goldrush for mobile communications. Who knows, voice and SMS may finally not be the core business in years to come.