[Ben]

The title says it all.

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/communications/0,1000000085,39285959,00.htm

The networks needed this. No, they needed it. Mass-producing laptops with integrated HSDPA would have been revolutionary to truly mobile data and data pricing. Now it looks like that isn't going to happen, and if it doesn't happen now then it'll probably be WiMAX that finally takes the mobile data crown after all.

I can understand Intel's frustration that manufacturers simply don't want the extra cost - but lets face it, was Dell et al just going to ditch Centrino overnight after all the branding Intel has done? No, I don't think so.

[Hands0n]

Why didn't they just quietly bundle it in as a Centrino "upgrade" or "update" rather than go for an entirely new and revolutionary Centrino bundle? Talk about shoot in the foot. Perhaps Intel saw the practical difficulties of making 3G laptops sell in sufficient quantity to be worth their while?



............a company spokesman said. "There is not enough of a business case. There is not sufficient return on investment to continue."


In a Chicken and Egg world mobile data from the incumbent MNOs is simply not cost effective for wholesale general public adoption. It is, and persists to be, far too expensive. Intel will have studied the likely sale of 3G-enabled Centrino and seen it to be a niche product! Niche means expensive and not much volume sale - quite the opposite of what a Laptop computer really is.

You are right Ben, the Mobile Network Operators [desperately] need something to stimulate use of Data - quite apart from getting the data tariffs right, which they are a very long way off doing. How can their pricing encourage the hardware manufacturers who are not wedded to their networks? How, indeed! Not by overpricing the fundamental transport mechanism ..... the network! That is evident.

WiMAX is coming over the horizon and if the mobile operators do not get a slice of the cake they'll be left holding the empty cake tin! But that, it seems, is what will happen as [inevitably] the mobile network ops cannot get the data pricing right for commoditised supply - they still insist on thinking of wireless data as a premium product. All the while WiMAX and others are literally taking the food out of their mouths. That said, could Intel ever truly commit to a rival to its own technology (WiMAX)?

Today it is WiFi - compare how many WiFi-enabled portable computers (i.e. laptops and PDAs) versus Mobile Data-equipped portables? The ratio is probably incalculably wide tens of thousands to one!

At the right price the mobile operators could have had the business right from under the nose of WiMAX. As it is, even with the not-quite-here WiMAX, when it arrives the chances are that noone will even consider the "legacy" mobile 2G and 3G networks.

The clock is ticking ......

[Ben]

I can honestly see the networks rolling out massive WiMAX networks dedicated to wireless broadband and retaining their current networks for 'mobile' data and telephony.

[Hands0n]

That would put a nail in the coffin for 3G mobile data! Maybe, then, the networks have all but abandoned their hopes for a viable return on their 3G investment. Back to calls and texts it is then :D

[Ben]

I guess they'll still get their return, in terms of higher capacities for voice calls and text messages and the potential of video calling 'taking off' (ie somebody using it) at some point in the future. The easy mast sharing is also a good advancement. I guess they'll look to the merits of 3G as a technological improvement for the delivery of (largely) existing services, a more '21st Century' network if you will.

Just things like supporting multiple data sessions and SMS/voice calls at the same time make 3G technologically worthwhile in such an established market.

[Hands0n]

But .... there's always one of these :D ...... WiMAX has the potential to make a huge dent in mobile voice through the use of VoIP over WiMAX. While WiMAX may not allow the same degree of realtime mobility that we have become accustomed to with cellular radiotelephone networks it may just open the gateway to WiMAX-equipped [for arguments sake] Skype handsets.

Even now there is at least one GSM/WiFi handset out that is geared towards exactly such use, more will follow (if they haven't already)


"Dual-mode cellular/WiFi handsets will be the key driver to mass consumer adoption of VoIP, the high-tech market research firm says. By 2009, In-Stat forecasts that over 66 million cellular/WiFi handsets will be in operation."

See here (http://blog.tmcnet.com/blog/tom-keating/voip/dualmode-cellularwifi-handset-adoption.asp) for some earlier info.


The above may be bold claims, but it shows that the technology is being considered as a significant in the not too distant future, at least by the pundits.

It may be that we will see artificial limitations put on VoIP over WiMAX but I suspect that will not happen. Instead, I fully expect the existing VoIP over WiFi/GSM handset technologies to develop. As the public's understanding and acceptance of the technology becomes apparent it may well turn into something of a significant threat to mobile (2G and 3G) voice revenues.

I don't expect a traditional GSM/3G manufacturer to be first out of the gate with a WiFi/GSM/UMTS or WiMAX/GSM/UMTS handset ....... although the logic dictates that they should be!