[@NickyColman]

Ok now that we are starting off the year 2006 what does everyone think this year will hold for us?

Will this be the year "Super3G" takes off?

Will all the networks make it to 2007?

Put your predictions here!

[getti]

'Super3G' or HSPDA as it's known will be launched this year on O2, Vodafone and possibly Orange and Three.

O2 have already launched in the Isle Of Man where they are testing it also. Voda have publicly annouced a summer 2006 launch for it's service.

I am 99% sure we will see data prices come down as speed increases and also that there will be a 5 megapixel camera phone by the end of the year (Sharp are my best bet).

All the networks will survive the year and 3G will grow and grow as better phones come out.

Also i expect MMS to take off more and limits increase to about 500kb at least

[Hands0n]

These are my predictions for 2006.

The networks, disappointed by the apparent failure to stage a 3G Christmas for 2005, will redouble their efforts during the first quarter of 2006 to win custom on the new networks. Competition will hot up.

The EU will challenge the networks International Roaming costs, starting with transparency and moving on to hard cash. The networks will be branded uncompetitive and restrictive to business within Europe. The threat of regulation may cause the networks to ease these costs significantly, thus generating increased revenue through more widespread use of International Roaming.

DVB-H (Digital Video Broadcast - Handheld) will launch in 2006 with Nokia being one of the first handset providers. If it is not out in time for the sporting season then it may well be a bit of a damp squib for 2006 though. Much confusion over the handset size - some will love it, others will hate it outright. DVB-H handsets in the format we are used to today will eventually appear, later if not sooner.

Data prices begin their downward spiral, begrudgingly at first but with increased pressure from the consumer it must come. Will someone break out of the mould and be radical?

Videocalling will increase during 2006 as more of the younger set acquire 3G handsets - tariffs for this will reduce gradually, or minutes will be included in tariff bundles.

Camera phones will continue to present a huge impact to reporting of local, national and world events as never before. Legal issues such as copyright, royalties and privacy will arise.

Talks and rumours of acquisition of 3UK continue on into 2006 but nothing will happen during the year. Orange will not do too well under its France Telecom parent, losing valuable ground to the other four networks. T-Mobile will expand its 3G into its MVNOs, after it has had first bite of the cherry.

Edit:
The war between Qualcomm and the network and handset manufacturers globally will be a bloody one. The resolution may need to be government intervention rather than allowing market forces or established patent and copyright laws to prevail. The alternative could be to witness manufacturers such as Nokia, NEC, Texas Instruments etc. faced with injunctions against manufacturing GSM and UMTS technology products. Or face crippling fines and punative licencing costs to Qualcomm.

[Ben]

Ok, I'm liking this one, here's my predictions. Should any of them even be remotely correct then I, of course, expect fame and fortune to follow.

HSDPA will probably remain talked about and nothing more right through until the autumn. Vodafone might surprise us with a HSDPA-enabled datacard in the summer, but might for once be pipped to the post by O2 due to their sigificant trials. A HSDPA handset might be out before Christmas, but if it does manage to be a 3G Christmas in 2006 it certainly wont be a HSDPA one. A laptop chipset with integrated HSDPA may emerge, signalling the end for datacards altogether.

MMS usage will finally start to pick up, as a critical mass of decent cameraphones and the improved reliability of MMS along with the incremental simplification of handset operating systems make it easy and worthwhile. Operators with a 100KB MMS cap may finally extend that cap to 300KB. Bundled MMS will become more common in tariffs.

Videocalling will only marginally gain users until it is transferred to Packet Switched networks and becomes interoperable with the Internet. This may not happen for years. Applications may, however, become available that make use of the phones front camera to allow video conversations with Instant Messaging clients such as MSN over Packet Switched networks but this will be prohibitively expensive.

HSDPA will prompt revised data charging, but the high rates are going to hang in there as long as they can. The scare stories of how quickly the bill grows over 3G will pale in comparison to the outrage at how quickly bills grow using HSDPA, but it may take a very generalised body such as Watchdog to take up the cause before new pricing structures kick in. I'd imagine we'll get a '£3 for the first 3MB, then £0.20 per MB after' type structure emerge to ensure casual users still pay through the nose where as heavy users get a more reasonable average cost.

Tariffs generally will become more value-added, with £30 buying more minutes, texts and content than ever before. Out of tariff prices and tariff pricepoints will remain the same.

I think we'll get at least one new innovative service, whether it's multiple-SIMs per number, the rapid rise of caller-tunes with associated annoying TV adverts, or SIM-Only solutions with manufacturers going solo. It could be something else entirely, but I think something will grip us this year.

[3GScottishUser]

Interesting - Often what is really happening many of us on 3G forums completely miss. Perhaps this is because we tend to form most of our opinions about the mobile telco market through the blinkered vision of what is happening with the new technology but there has been a lot of deveopments that most simply could'nt see in 2005, the relentless rise and subsequent purchace of 02 by Telefonica being the biggest.

I think we shall see the following:

HSDPA will roll out at a pace as Vodafone and others pushing Mobile TV need faster networks to cope with the demand. 02 will continue its DVB-H trail but it does not look like OFCOM have any intention of providing additional spectrum to similcast existing TV services to phones, so I cant see any progress for that development due to regulation in the coming year.

NTL will buy Virgin Mobile and become Virgin Telecom. They may start seriously looking at an alternative to T-Mobile for the provsion of their own mobile services and will become an agressive content provider buying mobile rights alongside their cable TV reights for sports events etc.

02 under Telefonica appears to be thriving. Hardly anyone noticed in 2005 that they were the most successful company at acquiring customers. Concentrating on 'niche markets' they look set to continue to build their customer base and seem set to benefit from their co-operative ventures with Tesco and others. i-mode will gain slightly in popularity although it does not appear to be destined to become a 'killer application'. 02's 3G efforts will be bolstered by their new tariffs and an expanded range of popular handsets in 2006.

Watch out for T-Mobile UK!! They have a war chest of £1.5 billion to spend in 2006/7 to bolster their business and might be prepared to spend to buy customers. Web'n'Walk will feature heavily as the vehicle to generate 3G uptake for T-Mobile in 2006.

Orange appears set to do what it has done well for many years. Quietly attracting mid-range spenders with promotions and innovative services. I suspect FT will spend some additional cash and revamp some of their tariffs later this year as they appear to have become a little stale lately. I expect Orange will also roll out HSDPA rapidly to provide more entertainment services and a consolodated Orange Mobile and fixed line broadband offering.

What about Vodafone? If any network got things right in terms of 3G towards the end of 2005 it has to be them. Innovative generic products like 'Passport' and 'Stop the Clock' look set to make Vodafone the network of choice for those who can see past the headline pricing. Lots of joined-up thinking with Mobile TV across the whole range of handsets, provided free for 3 months backed by lots of promotion. They also look set to continue to offer the widest range of 3G handsets and some big name bargain deals on pre-pay models too. There is scope for additional developments as BT expand their 'Fusion' service in conjunction with Vodafone. CPW as new owners of One-Tel will also have some negotiation to do as they use T-Mobile for 'Fresh' and Vodafone for One-Tel's mobile services. Will Vodafone end up providing all of CPW's MVNO services in the UK?

All of the incumbents will continue to offer the popular GSM handsets as well as the growing number of 3G products but their priority will be to provide customers with what they desire regradless of which technology they use. OFCOM will announce at least one new 3G licenece in 2007 which will be sold for a fraction of what the 5 operators paid for the original ones. This will present further pressures on pricing and original content.

I have left 3 UK to last. 2005 was not a happy time for them. They gained some new customers but lost lots too. The momentum would appear to have stalled and its hard to see how they can reverse the decline considering the recent price hike gaff and the reducing but substantial dissatisfaction that appears on popular consumer sites and surveys. Better 3G handsets have helped but they are no longer 'exclusive' and my predicion is that there are others now hungry to do the kind of deals only 3 would have considered previously. Can they survive? Not in their current form I suspect and the vulctures are now circling. If 3 Uk can make the figures look good then perhaps they can convince investors to take some of the weight off HWL but there now seems too many reasons why that's going to be difficult to achieve. My guess is that the network and the customer base may be worth more individually than as a single entity. Perhaps T-Mobile UK could buy the customers and Virgin Telecom could buy the network. This would reduce competition in the short term but would allow HWL out of the UK and give T-Mobile and Virgin both something they could use. Obviously BT, SKY, Cable and Wireless or Virgin could buy 3 UK and keep all of the proceeds to themselves. I suspect a trade sale is most likely at some point in 2006 especially if the new licence details become available before 3 has an opportunity to offer their intended IPO.

The strength of 'branding' appears to have been one of the big factors in terms of the growth and development of UK mobile services. Whether it be i-mode, live!, Web'n'Walk or Access customers have to firstly be able to understand the product and secondly want to buy it and thirdly keep paying for it! Singning folks up for high tech services appears to have been the easy thing, especially for companies with deep pockets, but making money from the technology (especially 3G) looks set to be one of the biggest headaches for all telcos in 2006 and beyond. Mobile TV points the way forward to some extent (when it has been done properly across an entire product range) but there has to be further integration of more innovative comonly used products (like MSN Messenger) and 3G networks. I suspect instant messaging and file sharing could be one big reason why young people might be tempted to pay for a 3G service rather than a 2G one.

[getti]

I think 3 and Voda will be the biggest players in 3G this year. I have a preference towards 3 because I have a plan with them, but then again when you think i chose to join 3 because the phone was cheap and the plan was the best on offer, how many other people think the same and also join 3.

3 have 2 new data add-on's coming out this month which will add value to everyday users. Aparantly there is a 56mb add-on which will be far less than the £45 you have to pay for 512mb. Also a casual user add-on which i think will offer 10mb for £7-9 and will be for contract users only to start. The data idea for Threepay is strange where you get a set time limit or amount of data for a fee. 1hr for £2.50 or something? very strange but it's a start.

3 also seem to get the best phones ahead of other networks now, look at the Nokia 6280. Only on 3 to start and i think this will happen with the N80 also. 3 also are more video based in every way. One main example is the Video Mail idea they have. Fully interactive, you can record your own video message so they know its you, it just adds to the enjoyment of 3G.

Now onto Vodafone. Their main selling points in my opinion is Stop The Clock and Passport. Many customers are chosing to join Vodafone because of this. Live! is very good also and the TV service is very good on most mobiles.

Orange had a good start to 3G but the phones are nothing new now, mainly updated versions of the orignials. They also stopped the 50mb a month free data which was a big selling point. My problem with Orange is that the phones lack anything special to make me want one again. The Sanyo phones are good but i wouldent want one on contract, the M5000 is a brick and a costly one. The 6680, N70 are stuck with an awfull 'Home Screen' that cannot be removed.

O2 should be interesting in 2006 with this new deal they have. I-Mode although a good idea is too late to make an impact.

I used I-Mode on a 2G phone and at first i was impressed. Then you work out the costs and it's not as good. Not only do you have to pay for browsing data to get to the sites but you ALSO have to pay a subscription to access content. On a 2G phone i was testing i could have spent £15 on subscriptions and browsing data where as on Voda or 3 where browing is free i might have spent £5 and got more for my money.

1 thing that bugs me is networks charging you to browse 'on net'. 3 offer free browsing and Vodafone recently changed to be free on-net. Why should you have to pay to browse to a download that you have to pay for again?. I mean browsing to a football video might cost 50p then you have the £2.50 (example) to download the clip.... not a good idea in my opinion, Yes charge for Off-Net as no money is going to the network for content.

I have never liked T-Mobile after i found out they charge 2p per kb for GPRS. Also their PAYG plan sucks where you have to spend more to save more. In reality you have to spend £30 a month on PAYG with them to get a good enough deal as all the other networks.

[whatleydude]

Just out of curiosity..

What makes you think the N80 will start off as a 3 exclusive?

[Ben]

I read it as Three will get it first, not as an exclusive. If they do it'll be by a matter of days I'd imagine.

[whatleydude]

Ah right, cool.

Thanks for the info..

[3GScottishUser]

Once again I suspect those into 3G are getting carried away with the significance of the technology. It only accounts for a very small percentage of the market in the UK presently and even that share has been somewhat inflated by artificial demand caused by bargain hunters jumping onto 3 to take advantage of acquisition subsidies.

Looking forward 3G is going to have to sell on merit eventually. The artificial price advantage is down to the 'new network' factor that has been underwritten by HWL and they can't continue to give away products and services indefinately.

Looking around at the range of handsets 3 UK have nothing particularly unique other than the LG U880 in their line-up and if they launch the Nokia 6280 they will only do so along with Orange, Vodafone and 02. What all of them have to hope is that customers will choose that and other 3G products in preference to GSM phones. Sadly the GSM offerings still provide all of the most popular features and are generally more fashionable. Top sellers at the and of 2005 have been the excellent Samsung D600, the SonyEricsson Walkman W750i and the Motorola V3 RAZR on contracts and its unlikely that any 3G handset on any network has made much of a mark on pre-pay.

Video is important for the future but one should not loose sight that what most folks buy a mobile telephone for is to voice communicate and send texts. GSM can send video files and we know very few purchace a mobile to hold live video conversations. There has to be a lot more innovation and it will have to impact a lot more than just a few folk with one particular brand of phone to make 3G a viable prospect.

Business has yet to embrace 3G as a prospect. They need to find a use for it. Currently most big businesses only provide staff with 'stripped down' versions of GSM handsets because they dont want staff spending their profits on video, MMS and content at their expense. Perhaps that is why 3 have had little impact on the business market to date.

Content will be the 'killer application' on mobiles eventually, but content can be provided via GSM as well a 3G and ultimately customers will decide which services are best. The 'integrated' networks have a huge advantage re seamless call switching and proven relibility backed up by well oiled customer service and functional, fashionable products. Price is important but so is what you get for it and latterly the incumbents have moved to provide bundles that suit traditional mobile users on 3G at lower price points than the new entrant. It might suit 3's agenda to force people to buy inclusive video facilities and content but that pushes up the monthly price commitment and could be a huge negative for those who just want to engage in 'traditional' mobile activities and experiment occasionally.

Hey 2006 is going to be the year the 3G technology either makes a mark or becomes something that networks quietly try to wean folks onto. I suspect the latter will prevail. 3 will have to push price and try to sell unwanted bundled content and video to make the sums look decent to potential investors, meanwhile the rest will keep GSM on track and busy and head them off with more flexible 3G offerings including non-commitment open Internet access, 3rd party communications products (like MSN Messenger including video calling) and more compelling content on a wider variety of handsets will play their part but in the end the 'winners' will be those who can convince mobile users to BUY services on 3G that were not previously a realistic prospect with other devices.

[whatleydude]

I'd like to see Push-to-Talk rolled out properly across the networks in 2006.

After seeing a report on it on The Gadget Show a few months ago having the option to PTT instead of sending texts would be great.

I'm really interested in it and I'm not sure if its ever been given the coverage it needs in the UK.