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3g-g
25th August 2005, 10:24 PM
Here's the breakdown of the 3G sector for Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.



HWL 2005 Interim Results Highlights for 3G:

* The 3 Group’s businesses have improved steadily and continue to build a quality customer base.

* 3G customer base currently totals over 9.4 million worldwide.

* 3 Italy is on target to achieve EBITDA breakeven, after all CAC expense, on a monthly basis for the month of August this year and 3 UK is expected to achieve this significant milestone later this year.

* 3 Group’s funding requirements to decline in the second half of this year and it is positioned to contribute significant value to the Group.

* 3 Group has continued to achieve both above market expectation customer take-up and above market average customer revenue and service margins as migration of the most valuable 2 and 2.5G cellular customers to 3G services has accelerated in all of their markets.

We can confirm that Hutchison Whampoa Limited (HWL) has announced the Group’s interim results for 2005 today, and disclosed an updated subscriber figure on its global network including Australia, Austria, Italy, Sweden & Denmark, the UK; as well as Hong Kong and Israel, which are under Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited (HTIL).

The 3 Group’s businesses have improved steadily and continue to build a quality customer base. 3 Italy is on target to be earnings before interest expense and finance costs, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (“EBITDA”) breakeven, after all customer acquisition costs (“CAC”), on a monthly basis for the month of August this year. This is a significant milestone towards achievement of free cashflow breakeven for the 3 Italy business, and means in effect that revenues from the business are covering both its running operating costs and the cost of acquiring customers at its current high rate of growth. 3 UK and Hutchison Telecommunications Australia are also on target to achieve this significant milestone later this year and early next year, respectively.

The 3 Group continues to progress based on solid customer, revenue and margin growth and reported a significant reduction in loss before interest expense and finance costs, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (“LBITDA”) before prepaid CAC, loss before interest expense and taxation (“LBIT”) and net loss after tax (“NLAT”).

Gross customer additions of the 3 Group and HTIL’s 3G businesses in the second quarter were approximately 1.9 million, 12% ahead of the first quarter of this year and 70% ahead of the second quarter of 2004. 3 Group’s gross revenues for the first half increased by 291% over the first half of 2004 to HK$17,256 million.

As customer usage of the unique 3G-services continues to gather pace, in addition to achieving higher than cellular market average revenue per customer, the 3 Group’s average non-voice revenue per customer at 23% of total revenue per customer is ahead of cellular market averages. Because service margins (revenue less direct costs) from non-voice services are significantly higher than from voice services, the value of the 3 Group’s customer base is rising much more rapidly than its market share, measured by customer numbers or revenues.

Operating costs and customer acquisition costs in the 3 Group have remained well managed, and are setting new benchmarks for the mobile industry. As a result, the 3 Group’s largest operations, 3 Italy and 3 UK are fully on track to achieve a major milestone: EBITDA breakeven after all CAC on a month-by-month basis in the second half of this year, and Hutchison Telecommunications Australia is expected to achieve this target early next year. In fact, 3 Italy is on target to achieve this milestone for the month of August. The 3 Group as a whole is expected to achieve EBITDA breakeven on a month-by-month basis during the second half of this year.

Looking forward, with the 3 Group’s funding requirements declining on an accelerating basis in the second half of this year and disappearing entirely in 2006, the 3 Group businesses should no longer result in an upward pressure on the Group’s overall net debt and gearing profile, and are positioned to contribute significant value to the Group.

In order to set an early market benchmark for the growing value of Group’s investment in the 3 Group businesses, our Italian operation is taking all steps necessary to be in a position to achieve an initial public offering and listing of shares, market conditions permitting. A successful offering at an enterprise value in excess of the total enterprise cost of the operation, would contribute both a dilution profit to the Group and a substantial reduction in the net debt attributable to this operation currently reflected in Group’s consolidated net debt.

With the rapid expansion of its customer base, the 3 Group’s average revenue per customer has declined since the annual results announcement in March 2005, an anticipated development as they broaden their customer base. Although ARPU has reduced, gross margin continued to improve due to increased penetration and usage of unique higher margin 3G non-voice services. In addition, management seeks to maintain and grow margins by lowering average customer acquisition costs and focusing on maintaining lower running operating costs and costs to serve.

Unit average customer acquisition costs for the first half of €274 was in line with the last half of 2004. However, the value of customers acquired was higher than 2004 as the Group’s mix of postpaid to prepaid customers improved, particularly in the UK, Australia and also Italy. In the 3 Group’s UK operations, which experiences the Group’s highest difference between postpaid and prepaid customer acquisition costs and customer value, the mix improvement has been higher than the Group’s average, and has improved from 45% / 55% to 53% / 47%. The Group has secured an attractive range of handsets under bulk orders to meet the second half demand at much lower prices than in the first half. This will contribute to lower overall unit average customer acquisition costs in the second half of this year.

Finally, 3 Group has adopted a pro-active management approach to deduct inactive start-up phase customers (mostly prepaid) from the customer base. As a result, the 3 Group’s net customer additions for the second quarter were lower than net additions reported in the last report. This is expected to be largely a one-time effect attributable to the poorer quality of handsets available to mainly prepaid customers during the early start-up stages of the business. As a result, the revenue, margin and activity profile of our current customer base of over 9.4 million is significantly above industry averages. The rate of net customer additions is expected to resume in the second half and significantly out perform the first quarter and first half achievement.

Key earnings reported for the 3 Group are:

* LBITDA before prepaid CAC of HK$794 million, an 83% reduction or HK$3,903 million improvement over the first half of 2004 LBITDA before prepaid CAC of HK$4,697 million and a 77% reduction or HK$2,649 million improvement over the second half of 2004.

* Reported LBITDA, after deducting prepaid customer acquisition costs, of HK$6,375 million, a 7% or HK$394 million increase compared to the first half of 2004 reported LBITDA of HK$5,981 million, reflecting a 220% increase in prepaid customer additions in 2005, mainly in Italy, and a 40% or HK$4,207 million improvement over the second half of 2004 reported LBITDA of HK$10,582 million.

* LBIT of HK$10,621 million, a 26% or HK$3,669 million improvement over the first half of 2004 reported LBIT of HK$14,290 million and a 56% or HK$13,473 million improvement over the second half of 2004 reported LBIT of HK$24,094 million.

* NLAT of HK$5,348 million, a 49% or HK$5,066 million improvement over the first half of 2004 reported NLAT of HK$10,414 million and a 66% or HK$10,340 million improvement over the second half of 2004 report NLAT of HK$15,688 million.

3g-g
26th August 2005, 12:23 AM
Finally, 3 Group has adopted a pro-active management approach to deduct inactive start-up phase customers (mostly prepaid) from the customer base. As a result, the 3 Group’s net customer additions for the second quarter were lower than net additions reported in the last report. This is expected to be largely a one-time effect attributable to the poorer quality of handsets available to mainly prepaid customers during the early start-up stages of the business. As a result, the revenue, margin and activity profile of our current customer base of over 9.4 million is significantly above industry averages. The rate of net customer additions is expected to resume in the second half and significantly out perform the first quarter and first half achievement.

Probably one of the more interesting paragraphs for us. It's good to see that 3 are aware that their initial handset rollout was, quite frankly, rubbish. Also, that they're disregarding inactive customers from the subscriber numbers. It just goes to prove what we knew all along, people were buying cheap 3pay handsets, chucking the SIMs and unlocking the handset for another network. Now they seem to have their house in some sort of order I wonder what the push will be as we move into the festive season?

Ben
26th August 2005, 02:23 PM
Perhaps what they did was necessary to get into the market, but as you rightly say - they seem to have acknowledged that the initial chapter in the life of Three (start-up phase customers... though more specifically Threepay) was not a long-term productive one. Perhaps now this is done they have a more stable base on which to build than I had anticipated.

Adding 200,000 subscribers in this last period despite Threepay losses is commendable. While some of you may rub your eyes in disbelief at this figure, remember that until recently Dialaphone was adding between 50,000 and 60,000 contract customers a month all by itself! Not any more after a tussle with Three, but Carphone have taken up the cause via their own website and will probably be adding similar numbers. (see Mobile Today for info: http://www.mobiletoday.co.uk/artman-test/publish/article_664.shtml )

Like you I too am reading the 'September 1st' rumours regarding new products/services/tariffs - possibly data. What gives this latest round of rumours more credibility than most is this new 'level ground' that Three appear to have arrived at through these latest results.

It looks like the boat is facing away from the waterfall, but there's a lot of rowing to do yet.

3GScottishUser
27th August 2005, 09:56 AM
One has to be very wary reading some of these stats as they are not common business indicators. 'LBITDA before prepaid CAC' is something that has not been used before by any other mobile operator.

Another important statistic that is missing from the above is the fact that the subscriber numbers quoted include those who have not used the service in the last 3 months. So if one assumes that contract and pre-pay customers who have churned (at the current reported rates) are included it means the UK figures are about 500K more than reported at the time the results were published. The inclusion of prepay non-users is pretty standard but normally contract subscribers are removed from the stats when contracts are terminated. HWL have not really clarified these details in their report, not surprising.

All in all a very poor set of results. ARPU plummeting, churn about 50% higher than the industry average and 3 are still having to pay enourmous commissions and subsidies to dealers to just about stand still.

With the big boys lining up for a full scale 3G assult this year one has to wonder how long HWL will put up with this kind of result. I expect some serious fall-out in 2006.

3g-g
27th August 2005, 12:10 PM
3 Italy is on target to be earnings before interest expense and finance costs, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (“EBITDA”) breakeven, after all customer acquisition costs (“CAC”), on a monthly basis for the month of August this year. This is a significant milestone towards achievement of free cashflow breakeven for the 3 Italy business, and means in effect that revenues from the business are covering both its running operating costs and the cost of acquiring customers at its current high rate of growth. 3 UK and Hutchison Telecommunications Australia are also on target to achieve this significant milestone later this year and early next year, respectively.

I completely agree that results issued by large companies, in general, mean little to me. A whole bunch of earning "stuff" before "stuff" being removed and adding some other "stuff" on so you end up with earning some "stuff". That's about how I read it. I'm sure it's made deliberately confusing so people don't get the clear picture, well maybe it makes sense to the acountants.

However the paragraph above shows things are changing, no matter what the numbers are for churn, ARPU or proper contract/PAYG numbers are. 3 Italy are now making enough money to cover what they have to spend to acquire and operate, now it's possible 3UK might not get to the same point when they predict, however it does seem that they're on the right road.

You're right, the big boys will be lining their 3G offereings up for the rest of this year, in fact all the operators have been doing a push for the last few months, Voda's summer promo, Orange's wise man, TMob mates rates and O2 rewarding PAYT customers for loyalty... what have 3 been doing? They can't afford to sit tight and hope that they'll start having a positive cashflow, there needs to be some sort of major push over the next few months or they'll get left behind.

3g-g
6th September 2005, 12:13 AM
Found some more break down of Three's recent results WRT their telecommunications operations. It still seems to be spend spend spend!


HWL's 3G operations' performance improved with gross subscriber adds; and average and total customer acquisition costs were largely in line with the rating agency's expectation.

Average revenue per user (ARPU), however, declined as competition intensified in the UK and Italy markets and the company made efforts to improve the quality of its customer base. ARPU declined by 17% to HKD430 as of end-June 2005 from HKD515 as of end-December 2004.

The 3G operation's loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (LBITDA), before expensed customer acquisition cost (CAC), narrowed to about HKD800 million for the half from HKD4.7 billion in the same period last year. Total CAC for the first half of FY2005 was about HKD11 billion, compared to HKD21 billion for the full year of FY2004.

Moody's commented that HWL's credit metrics remain weak for its current rating level, given that the company's most recent results still show negative free cash flow -- resulting from continued CAC spending and capital expenditure associated with its 3G operations, and increased net debt. Net debt to capital increased to 39% from 33% at the end of FY2004. Gross cash flow (after expensed CAC) to gross interest was 1.4x compared with 1.6x at the end of FY2004.

You can read the whole article here. (http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050830/15/3ulbj.html)